الرئيسية + حوارت + الشاخوري لـ(شؤون خليجية): السعودية على صفيح ساخن والانفجار قادم

الشاخوري لـ(شؤون خليجية): السعودية على صفيح ساخن والانفجار قادم

القرارات الملكية لتحصين سلطات الأمراء النافذين.. والغضب يتجاوز الشعب ويصل للأمراء, مخطط تعيين مقرن كان تمهيدًا لمخطط تصعيد متعب.. ولكنه فشل بموت عبد الله، القرارات تم إعدادها عبر إجراءات تمهيدية.. وتوقيتها يصلح لتمرير الانقلابات، السديريون عائدون للاستحواذ على السلطة وفرض هيمنتهم على إدارة البلاد

أثارت القرارات التي أصدرها العاهل السعودي الملك سلمان بن عبد العزيز، صباح اليوم الأربعاء، جدلًا واسعًا في الأوساط السعودية بمختلف طوائفها، وتباينت ردود الفعل بشأنها بين مؤيد ومعارض.

“شؤون خليجية” حرصت على التواصل مع حمزة الشاخوري أحد رموز المعارضة الشيعية السعودية، والذي يتخذ من نيوزيلندا مقرًا لنشاطه السياسي، وعرف كقيادي مؤسس في “ائتلاف الحرية والعدالة” أحد أبرز التشكيلات الجماهيرية، التي نشطت- ولا تزال- في تنظيم المسيرات الاحتجاجية المناوئة لنظام الحكم السعودي.

عرف الشاخوري بكتاباته الراديكالية- الأصولية الجذرية- الثورية منذ مطلع اﻷلفية الثالثة، وقبل نجاحه في الفرار من السعودية في أعقاب ملاحقة السلطات له في أغسطس2012، لدوره في تنظيم المظاهرات الاحتجاجية في القطيف، التي اندلعت بالتزامن مع الربيع العربي.

وإلى نص الحوار..

** كيف ترى القرارات الملكية الجديدة التي أصدرها الملك سلمان، اليوم؟

* في السعودية لا تخضع التعيينات وتوزيع المناصب، لاسيما السيادية منها، إلى اعتبارات الحاجة الواقعية للتغيير الإداري أو تدوير الكفاءات وتحسين فعالية الأداء، بل تخضع التغييرات المتلاحقة وغير المحكومة بمعايير واضحة، إلى اعتبارات توزيع وتعزيز النفوذ وتحصين سلطات الأمراء النافذين، عبر توزيع حواشيهم واستبعاد حواشي الأمراء المنافسين أو المغضوب عليهم، وفي حالات نادرة تم عزل وزراء من غير الأسرة الحاكمة، بناء على قصور في الأداء أو أخطاء فادحة، وعلى أية حال فهي حالات محصورة في الوزارات الخدمية بالتحديد.

** وما دلالات التوقيت؟

* الأحداث المتلاحقة تضع السعودية على صفيح ساخن ينبئ بالانفجار في أية لحظة ودون سابق إنذار، البلاد في حالة فوضى عارمة، ومساحة الغضب تتجاوز الشعب إلى شريحة واسعة من الأمراء!

وإن صدور قرارات بهذا الحجم وعلى هذا القدر الكبير من الخطورة، لتتجاوز وتنسف تعيينات لم يمضِ عليها أكثر من ثلاثة أشهر، وفي ظل تورط البلاد في حرب اليمن التي يشير أفضل المتفائلين إلى خطورة مآلاتها على حاضر ومستقبل المملكة، إضافة لما يعصف بالبلاد من التهديدات الأمنية والسياسية داخليًا وإقليميًا، يؤكد بما لا يدع مجالاً للشك أن النظام في السعودية يمر بحالة من اللااستقرار غير مسبوقة، ويتخبط مترنحًا في مواجهة أزمات وضغوط متداخلة.

كان من اللافت توقيت صدور القرارات الأخيرة، التي أطاحت بولي العهد مقرن بن عبد العزيز أصغر أبناء الملك “المؤسس”، وجاءت بأول أحفاده محمد بن نايف إلى منصب ولاية العهد، فمن حيث الوقت فقد صدرت بعد منتصف الليل وقبيل الفجر، وهو توقيت يصلح لتمرير الانقلابات ولجم أية ردود أفعال متوقعة، وبسط السيطرة، وفرض إرادة الانقلابيين كأمر واقع!!

** هل ترى أن القرارات محاولة انقلاب داخل العائلة المالكة؟

* القرارات تشير إلى اطلاع الملك سلمان على طلبات إعفاء من قبل ولي العهد ووزير الخارجية، واطلاعه على خطاب ولي العهد المعين محمد بن نايف بخصوص اختياره لمحمد بن سلمان كولي لولي العهد، ثم تشير إلى اطلاع الملك على تأييد أغلبية أعضاء هيئة البيعة لاختيار محمد بن سلمان وليًا لولي العهد!!

لابد أن نتساءل: متى تسنى الوقت الكافي لكل هذه العملية بما تتضمنه من اجتماع هيئة البيعة أو النقاش المباشر أو غير المباشر بين أعضائها، ورفع الخطابات من قبل طالبي الإعفاء، وخطاب ترشيح ولي ولي العهد، ومتى تم اطلاع الملك عليها؟!، كما نتساءل عن سر التزامن بين إجراء هذه التغييرات الدراماتيكية، وبين إشغال الجيش والحرس الوطني والأجهزة الأمنية في معارك خارج البلاد وعلى الحدود، وفي مسرحيات الملاحقة لأعضاء القاعدة، وإفشال مخططات التفجير والتخريب لمواقع حيوية وإستراتيجية عدة..

** هل تقصد أن القرارات يتم الإعداد لها منذ فترة؟

* نعم فكل ما سبق ذكره لا يدع مجالًا للشك أن ما تم الإعلان عنه سبق تحضيره والإعداد له، عبر سلسلة من الأحداث والإجراءات التمهيدية على مدى الشهور الماضية.. ويجب ألا ننسى أن “الأمراء الجدد” عمدوا ومباشرة بعد وفاة الملك عبد الله باستبعاد جميع الأقوياء الموالين له، وفي مقدمتهم رئيس الديوان الملكي ومستشاره الأول خالد التويجري، وتتابعت المؤشرات التي أكدت أن “الأمراء الجدد” قادمون للإمساك بقوة على كافة مرافق السلطة، والاستحواذ على جميع الصلاحيات، وفرض هيمنتهم على إدارة البلاد من جديد.

** كيف ترى استبعاد الأمير مقرن؟

* المهم أن نشير إلى أن تعيين الأمير مقرن وليًا لولي العهد في نهايات مارس 2014، أتى في سياق مخطط يستهدف تصعيد الأمير متعب بن عبد الله إلى ولاية العهد، تمهيدًا لإيصاله إلى منصب الملك، وهو المخطط الذي فشل في أعقاب وفاة الملك السابق قبل إتمامه، ونلاحظ الآن أن الأميرين محمد بن نايف ومحمد بن سلمان يتابعان تنفيذه لصالحهما.

لا يمكن لنا أن نفهم صدور هذه القرارات الأخيرة، والتي أطاحت بولي العهد مقرن بن عبد العزيز أصغر أبناء الملك “المؤسس”، وجاءت بأول أحفاده محمد بن نايف إلى منصب ولاية العهد، إلا في إطار الصراع المسعور بين أبناء وأحفاد الملك عبد العزيز.

** البعض يربط بين القرارات الملكية والعملية العسكرية باليمن، كيف ترى ذلك؟

* بالطبع، هناك تساؤل حول ما هي دلالات وأسرار التزامن بين إجراء هذه التغييرات الدراماتيكية، وبين إشغال الجيش والحرس الوطني والأجهزة الأمنية في معارك خارج البلاد وعلى الحدود؟، ولماذا لم يتم تأجيل إصدارها إلى حين أن تضع الحرب أوزارها؟!

** هناك رأي يقول إن “عاصفة الحزم” تهدف لتصعيد محمد بن سلمان، فما رأيك؟

* نعم.. فالحرب على اليمن غير المبررة أو المشروعة بات على رأس أهدافها تصعيد محمد بن سلمان، وإبرازه كرجل كفء ومؤهل للقيادة، وفي المقابل حرص محمد بن نايف أن يفتعل انجازات أمنية متتابعة في الداخل، كان آخرها الإعلان المسرحي عن القبض على 93 من عناصر القاعدة، وإفشال محاولة هجوم على السفارة الأمريكية.

** من المتعارف عليه أن أوقات الحرب لا تتخذ فيها تغييرات أو قرارات داخلية؟ كيف ترى ذلك؟

* نعم.. فإن استباق حزمة القرارات بإشراك قوات الحرس الوطني في العدوان على اليمن، ونقل أهم قطاعاتها إلى الحدود الجنوبية للبلاد، وحرص وزير الدفاع محمد بن سلمان على تعيين ضباط من الجيش، ممن عرفوا بولائهم “للسديريين” عمومًا، على رأس القطاعات التابعة للحرس الوطني، إنما كان بهدف ضمان تحييد وعدم تمرد هذه القطاعات، ووضعها تحت السيطرة.. وهكذا وجد متعب بن عبدالله نفسه كسيرًا منزوع القوة، لا يقدر على المشاكسة، حتى وإن أرادها!

** ماذا عن السديرون وكيف تراهم الآن؟

* عمل الملك عبد الله ومنذ توليه عرش الملك على تهميش واستبعاد “الأمراء الجدد”، ضمن حلقات الصراع والتخطيط للاستحواذ على الملك وتوريثه لابنه متعب وزير الحرس الوطني، ثم ما لبثت العصبة السديرية أن قامت ومباشرة بعد وفاة الملك عبدالله، باستبعاد جميع الأقوياء الموالين له، وتتابعت المؤشرات التي أكدت أن السديريين عائدون للامساك بقوة بكافة مرافق السلطة، والاستحواذ على جميع الصلاحيات، وفرض هيمنتهم على إدارة البلاد من جديد.

** كيف تقرأ صعود بن نايف إلى سدة السلطة من خلال قرار تنصيبه وليًا للعهد؟

* القرارات لا تعنى أن مخطط تصعيد محمد بن نايف إلى عرش الملك سيمر بشكل آمن وهادئ، فإذا كان شخص مثل الأمير مقرن بلا حول ولا قوة، وليس له من سند ،ومن السهولة ترضيته بعطايا مالية ضخمة، كما تمت التسوية من قبل بين الأميرين وزير الدفاع الأسبق سلطان بن عبدالعزيز، ومشعل بن عبدالعزيز، حيث تنازل الأخير عن حقه في ولاية العهد مقابل مئات الملايين من الدولارات، كما أشارت لذلك العديد من المصادر في حينه، في المقابل هناك طامعون وناقمون كثر بين الأمراء من أبناء الملك عبد العزيز وأحفاده.

إن تعمد افتعال الأخطار وإظهارها بصورة التهديدات المحدقة بالنظام والعرش السعودي، سواء عبر توريط البلاد في حرب على شعب عربي مسلم في اليمن، أو تنشيط خلايا القاعدة في الداخل، والزج بالأجهزة الأمنية في مواجهة أحداث وأعداء مفترضين، كل هذا ليس كافيًا ولن يضمن صمت وحياد وتنازل أمراء من أمثال متعب بن عبد الله، وطلال بن عبد العزيز، وابنه الوليد، فضلاً عن الأميرين المستبعدين والمهمشين أحمد بن عبد العزيز وزير الداخلية السابق، والأمير خالد بن سلطان وزير الدفاع الأسبق.

** هل تتوقع صراعات بين ولي العهد وولي ولي العهد؟

* الصراع لن يلبث أن يحتدم بين ولي العهد الجديد وولي ولي العهد، فكلاهما عينه على كرسي الملك، ومن غير المستبعد أن تتم الإطاحة بمحمد بن نايف ضمن سيناريوهات متعددة، لا تستبعد تجريده من وزارة الداخلية، وحتى اشتعال فتيل صراع دموي بينهما، وتورط الجيش والأجهزة الأمنية في حرب داخلية بين “الأمراء الجدد”، خصوصًا في ظل ترقب تفاقم تدهور الحالة الصحية للملك سلمان، وانحداره إلى حالة عجز تام كما كان مصير سلفيه الملكين عبدالله وفهد.

كما أن الاحتمالات الأخرى لا تزال مفتوحة، وستتحكم في مساراتها عوامل داخلية وخارجية، وسينشط أمراء كثر في الدخول إلى حلبة الصراع على تقاسم النفوذ والسلطة من دائرة واسعة، تشمل أبناء الملك المؤسس وأحفاده، وسيغذي الصراع نقمة المستبعدين والمهمشين من الأمراء، الذين تمت تنحيتهم بطريقة لم تحفظ لهم أي مستوى من التقدير أو الاحترام.

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